March 19, 2021, 6:42 pm | Read time: 5 minutes
Things are going very well for the streaming service Disney+ at the moment. It has just surpassed the magical mark of 100 million subscribers in only about a year and a half. The current market leader, Netflix, took significantly longer to reach this milestone. But does this mean Disney+ will soon overtake its biggest competitor?
Disney+ launched in the U.S. on November 12, and in Germany on March 24, 2020. Since then, it’s been almost exactly a year, and the streaming service has had a surprising start, far exceeding its own expectations. The magical mark of 100 million subscribers worldwide was reached in March 2021. This has led to a wave of speculation about when Disney’s in-house streaming platform will reach the top and dethrone the current market leader, Netflix. But is that realistic? Here’s what speaks for and against it.
The “Surprise Success” of Disney+
Although Disney+ was eagerly anticipated and considered a major Netflix competitor, even the company itself did not expect such good numbers so quickly. By August 2020, more than 60 million users worldwide had subscribed, and by December, the number had already reached 85 million. Disney+ had set a goal of 90 million for its fifth anniversary, a milestone it has now surpassed after just over a year. In December 2020, the understandably emboldened provider expanded its goals: 260 million by 2024. Concurrently, the budget is now higher than originally planned. Disney aims to boost its streaming platform with $15 billion (about 12.6 billion euros).
Disney+ now includes major brands such as Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, and National Geographic. Additionally, Hulu productions and ESPN+ content are also available on the platform. Analyst and industry expert Richard Broughton predicted in the Guardian that the provider would have nearly 270 million subscribers by 2024.
Netflix’s Long Success Story
For Netflix, the path to 100 million subscribers was significantly longer and more challenging. It took almost 10 years to reach this proud milestone. Of course, the provider’s history includes its much earlier start in 1997 as an online DVD rental service. It wasn’t until 2007, after YouTube’s success, that Netflix fully transitioned to streaming. Netflix’s recommendation algorithm, Cinematch, was also groundbreaking, having a significant impact on the popularity of various smaller indie productions.
In the 2010s, Netflix continuously expanded both its offerings and subscriber numbers. In the pandemic year of 2020, the company’s market value exceeded that of the entire Walt Disney Company, reaching nearly $200 billion. In early 2021, the company announced it had 203.7 million subscribers worldwide.
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Disney+ and Netflix in Direct Comparison
The company histories of both streaming providers can only be compared to a limited extent. However, their current offerings and performance can be compared much more. Here, Netflix has a clear advantage due to its longer presence. The provider is technically implemented on many devices and is easy to use. Moreover, surveys and studies, such as those by the University of Münster, consistently show high user trust. Although Disney+ made a strong entry, the app still has significant room for improvement.
The biggest difference lies in the offerings. Netflix is known for a plethora of original productions that are exclusively available on the platform. Big names include “The Crown,” “Stranger Things,” “Tiger King,” “The Witcher,” and “The Queen’s Gambit.” Especially in the series sector, Netflix seems to have an unbeatable sense for its target audience. In comparison, Disney+ still has a lot of catching up to do. A significant step towards attractive content was the launch of Disney+ Star in February 2021. This move shifted the provider from a smaller target audience of families with children to broader content.
Disney+’s greatest strength is the size of the brands it includes, especially Marvel and Star Wars. These franchises have delivered the biggest successes on the platform: “The Mandalorian” and “WandaVision.” For Disney+’s future success, it is crucial to continue providing high-quality, exclusive content. Netflix, on the other hand, has already proven its ability to regularly publish such content.
Read also: The Latest Releases on Disney+
Can Disney+ Soon Catch Up to Netflix?
According to its own statement, Disney+ aims to surpass Amazon Prime in three years and Netflix in four years to claim the streaming crown. Given the current numbers, it’s understandable where this statement comes from, but it should be taken with caution. Disney+ clearly benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic at its launch. Although the situation led to a delay in the release in France, in retrospect, it’s clear that far more people streamed movies and series for entertainment during the lockdown. Since Disney+ literally came out of nowhere at that time, the leap is logically larger than for other streaming services, which also saw a significant increase.
Disney+ also benefits from the groundwork Netflix has already laid. The provider established video streaming internationally, simultaneously growing its own brand. Just as “Googling” is now a term everyone knows and generally refers to searching for information using a search engine, the term “Netflixing” has already caught on in many places.
To truly catch up to and surpass Netflix, Disney+ must not only win over Netflix subscribers, as they are essentially the target audience that streams movies and series. More importantly, it must convince this user base to give up their Netflix account to gain an advantage. Competition will also come from other quarters like Amazon or soon HBO Max. Many big names are vying for a target audience that may eventually pull the plug and decide that three streaming services are enough. Therefore, it will be quite challenging for Disney+ to ultimately catch up to Netflix, especially since the competitor is certainly not producing on a low flame in the meantime. For users, however, the battle could positively impact content. One thing is quite certain: In the end, the decisive factor will be the overall package between price and high-quality, exclusive content. So far, Netflix is still ahead—and by a significant margin.