August 15, 2026, 6:08 am | Read time: 3 minutes

Many businesses believe the technology will take over tasks previously handled by less experienced employees. This could weaken their position in salary negotiations. Ifo researcher Anna Ruffert summarizes the findings: “Overall, we see that significantly more companies expect negative effects than positive ones.”

Newcomers Have It the Hardest

Companies particularly anticipate lower wages for employees with less than five years of work experience. About half of the surveyed businesses expect a decline in the next five years.

For newcomers with a college degree, 50.8 percent of companies expect lower wages, while 16.3 percent foresee rising salaries. The outlook is even less favorable for newcomers without a college degree. In this group, 48.3 percent of companies expect lower wages, while only 5.9 percent anticipate rising salaries.

More Experience Improves Prospects

Employees with at least five years of work experience are not spared from the expected impacts. However, the results are somewhat less negative than for newcomers.

For workers without a college degree, 40.4 percent of companies expect lower wages. Only 9.7 percent anticipate rising salaries. The prospects are significantly better for employees with a college degree. While 37.5 percent of companies still expect lower wages, 26 percent anticipate rising salaries.

Anna Ruffert concludes: “Artificial intelligence will not affect wages equally for all employees, according to many companies.” She further explains: “They are most likely to expect lower wages for less experienced workers.”

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Significant Differences Between Industries

Expectations also vary by industry. Companies in the service sector are particularly likely to anticipate lower wages. For employees with short work experience and without a college degree, 53.3 percent of companies expect this. For employees with longer work experience, this figure is 44.2 percent.

In retail, 47.9 percent and 41.3 percent of companies expect lower wages, respectively. In manufacturing, the figures are 46.5 and 38.9 percent. The expected impacts are lowest in the construction industry, where 39 percent of companies expect lower wages for employees with little work experience. For workers with more experience, 31.3 percent expect this.

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Factors That Improve Prospects

The study results show clear differences between individual employee groups, according to the Ifo Institute. Experience and a college degree improve the prospects for positive salary developments.

Especially experienced academics have comparatively better chances of rising wages, according to the surveyed companies. Newcomers, on the other hand, fare significantly worse. The industry also plays a role. While companies in the service sector are particularly likely to expect lower wages, assessments in the construction industry are significantly less negative.

^{With material from dpa}