April 16, 2023, 2:56 pm | Read time: 5 minutes
Artificial intelligence raises hopes for a new golden age of information. However, many people also fear that AI will harm the world. Two recent studies show that AI applications will at least significantly impact the working world.
Artificial intelligence tools like the chatbot ChatGPT are currently shaking up the tech industry. Google’s dominance in internet search is being seriously challenged for the first time by the new AI software. But the effects of this technological upheaval are not only felt in distant Silicon Valley. Artificial intelligence will also comprehensively change the workday and jobs of many people outside the Californian tech centers. This is according to two studies that examine the impact of the AI revolution on the working world.
The first study comes from the creators of ChatGPT themselves: Researchers from the startup company OpenAI teamed up with scientists from the University of Pennsylvania to find out which jobs ChatGPT affects the most. Accountants are among the professions most impacted by the capabilities of generative artificial intelligence. At least half of the tasks in accounting could be completed much faster by this technology.
From Mathematicians to Writers
According to the study, mathematicians, programmers, interpreters, writers, and journalists are also affected. Artificial intelligence can take over at least part of the tasks in their jobs. Although AIs currently often “hallucinate” incorrect facts in their responses, they already deliver remarkable results in tasks such as translation, classification, creative writing, and generating computer codes.
Researchers from OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania assume that AI language models could change most jobs in some form. Around 80 percent of workers in the U.S. are in occupations where generative AI can complete at least one task faster. However, there are also professions where AI will play only a minor role. These include chefs, auto mechanics, and jobs in oil and gas extraction, as well as in forestry and agriculture.
“Generative AI” as a Disruptor in the Job Market
A research department of the investment bank Goldman Sachs has calculated in a study what this development could mean for the job market. If the so-called generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, it could lead to “significant disruptions in the job market.” “Generative AI” refers to computer programs that can create new ideas, content, or solutions instead of just following predefined rules or instructions.
Goldman Sachs estimates that about two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of automation by artificial intelligence. Generative AI could replace up to a quarter of current work. “If we extrapolate our estimates to the entire world, generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation.”
Hinrich Schütze, director of the Center for Information and Language Processing at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU), sees the development of generative AI as a revolution comparable to the internet or the smartphone. However, the AIs are still far from a true understanding of the content. “The basic technology for language patterns is simply to always predict the next word, quite stupidly, always the next word,” Schütze said.
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Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs Already Enormous
Nevertheless, the impact is already enormous: “There will be major changes in how we write whenever we draft texts, how we program.” This will also have significant effects on the workday. “Many professions will disappear if it’s just about writing summaries, gathering knowledge, and condensing it.”
The Munich AI expert warns against giving artificial intelligence too much leeway in decision-making. This applies to areas such as justice, medicine, tax consulting, or asset management. AIs make statements with great conviction, even though the facts are often incorrect. “People think it must be true if the model is so sure. But in reality, the model cannot assess its own certainty. That’s one of the big problems we have.”
Christoph Meinel, a computer science professor in Potsdam, sees another obstacle to the widespread breakthrough of AI in the workplace. The systems require enormous computing power and thus also vast amounts of energy. “Many expectations of AI seem exaggerated to me and unrealistic in terms of their energy consumption,” says the outgoing director of the Hasso Plattner Institute (HPI). Successful AI applications are based on so-called deep learning, which involves training with massive amounts of data. “And they consume enormous amounts of energy.” A broad introduction would therefore be fatal for the climate and achieving climate goals. “We must first develop significantly more energy-efficient AI systems.”
Data Protection as a Challenge
Meinel sees not only the high power demand as a challenge but also data protection. “Anyone trying out the latest artificial intelligence applications on the internet should be cautious about revealing sensitive personal data,” Meinel advises. Despite the hype, all responsible parties should be aware that with their inquiries and data, they are training and enhancing the AI models of the providers for free. For example, those who upload internal financial data to certain platforms to automatically create a presentation from it must know that this could potentially reveal business secrets.